Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

214.95 – 189.51

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

167 – 236

Prediction missed · off by 47.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 423.1 ±11.6

2704Roaring Robotics

Season APEX 164.1Event APEX 64.05Rank 25Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9316CUBATRONICS

Season APEX 92.1Event APEX 70.12Rank 24Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2220Blue Twilight

Season APEX 166.9Event APEX 80.78Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 377.5 ±12.9

8880Terra Cyborg

Season APEX 97.1Event APEX 57.92Rank 17Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6017PrepaTec - Cyberius

Season APEX 219.7Event APEX 124.38Rank 3Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10453Northmen Robotics

Season APEX 60.7Event APEX 7.21Rank 33Record 3-6-1Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2704, 9316, 2220

/ 100 compat

Projected

215 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 2704, 9316, 2220

Auto

12.4 6%

Teleop

115.7 53%

Endgame

88.8 41%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8880, 6017, 10453

/ 100 compat

Projected

189.5 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 8880, 6017, 10453

Auto

27.6 15%

Teleop

95.9 52%

Endgame

62.4 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.84 · Blue 1.54

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score215pts

Blue projected score189.5pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 25.4
Score range: 158–247
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 403 vs event baseline 177.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

423.1Season APEX377.5

12.4Auto27.6

115.7Teleop95.9

88.8Endgame62.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	42
teleop	118	138
endgame	33	56
foul	0	0
total	167	236

Result

Final score

167 – 236

Prediction missed · off by 47.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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