Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

187.89 – 100.81

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

47 – 289

Prediction missed · off by 164.5 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 215.5 ±15.6

11171Hi Gear

Season APEX 105.1Event APEX 34.17Rank 38Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 92

8825Team Eagle Eyed

Season APEX 71.9Event APEX 108.72Rank 22Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

1763Paséliens

Season APEX 38.5Event APEX 45Rank 40Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 333.1 ±14.5

7102PrepaTec - Daedalus

Season APEX 75.5Event APEX -10.02Rank 36Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 92

1810CATATRONICS

Season APEX 142.1Event APEX 92.5Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4624Rebel Alliance

Season APEX 115.5Event APEX 18.33Rank 21Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11171, 8825, 1763

/ 100 compat

Projected

187.9 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 11171, 8825, 1763

Auto

28.3 15%

Teleop

99.5 53%

Endgame

61.0 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7102, 1810, 4624

/ 100 compat

Projected

100.8 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 7102, 1810, 4624

Auto

16.7 16%

Teleop

55.1 53%

Endgame

31.6 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.13 · Blue 1.22

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score187.9pts

Blue projected score100.8pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample164alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 87.1
Score range: 66–223
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 336 vs event baseline 196.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

215.5Season APEX333.1

28.3Auto16.7

99.5Teleop55.1

61Endgame31.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	50
teleop	28	199
endgame	3	40
foul	0	0
total	47	289

Result

Final score

47 – 289

Prediction missed · off by 164.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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