Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

286.2 – 166.92

82%18%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

350 – 98

Prediction correct · off by 66.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 539.8 ±9.8

4766Team SCREAM Jr.

Season APEX 206.1Event APEX 134.05Rank 5Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2040DERT - Dunlap Eagles Robotics Team

Season APEX 192Event APEX 124.19Rank 8Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5968Little Apple Cyborgs

Season APEX 141.7Event APEX 27.96Rank 28Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 268.2 ±12.7

9445The Brave Bots

Season APEX 72.1Event APEX 24.07Rank 31Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4329Lutheran Roboteers

Season APEX 76.6Event APEX 72.51Rank 24Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5268The BioMech Falcons

Season APEX 119.5Event APEX 70.34Rank 11Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4766, 2040, 5968

/ 100 compat

Projected

286.2 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 4766, 2040, 5968

Auto

37.9 13%

Teleop

161.0 56%

Endgame

86.8 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9445, 4329, 5268

/ 100 compat

Projected

166.9 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 9445, 4329, 5268

Auto

42.6 26%

Teleop

82.8 51%

Endgame

36.6 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.27 · Blue 1.09

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score286.2pts

Blue projected score166.9pts

Red win probability82%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 119.3
Score range: 132–321
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 448 vs event baseline 195.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

539.8Season APEX268.2

37.9Auto42.6

161Teleop82.8

86.8Endgame36.6

89Consistency17

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	31
teleop	222	33
endgame	83	34
foul	5	0
total	350	98

Result

Final score

350 – 98

Prediction correct · off by 66.4 pts

Match videos

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