Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

157.93 – 157.82

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

210 – 153

Prediction correct · off by 28.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 268.2 ±12.7

9445The Brave Bots

Season APEX 72.1Event APEX 20.84Rank 31Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4329Lutheran Roboteers

Season APEX 76.6Event APEX 69.62Rank 24Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5268The BioMech Falcons

Season APEX 119.5Event APEX 67.47Rank 11Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 248 ±13.9

1802Team Stealth

Season APEX 112.6Event APEX 91.19Rank 14Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4455The Burger Bots

Season APEX 53.8Event APEX 1.05Rank 30Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

1723The FBI - FIRST Bots of Independence

Season APEX 81.6Event APEX 65.58Rank 10Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9445, 4329, 5268

/ 100 compat

Projected

157.9 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 9445, 4329, 5268

Auto

42.8 28%

Teleop

80.8 52%

Endgame

30.6 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1802, 4455, 1723

/ 100 compat

Projected

157.8 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 1802, 4455, 1723

Auto

38.9 25%

Teleop

67.3 43%

Endgame

48.6 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.72 · Blue 1.7

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score157.9pts

Blue projected score157.8pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 0.1
Score range: 123–193
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 363 vs event baseline 191.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

268.2Season APEX248

42.8Auto38.9

80.8Teleop67.3

30.6Endgame48.6

5Consistency73

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	54
teleop	92	51
endgame	64	48
foul	10	0
total	210	153

Result

Final score

210 – 153

Prediction correct · off by 28.4 pts

Match videos

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