Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

126.41 – 216.94

24%76%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

159 – 282

Prediction correct · off by 48.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 242.5 ±13.9

1997STAGROBOTICS

Season APEX 80.7Event APEX 20.94Rank 27Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9570Valiant

Season APEX 92.2Event APEX 50.39Rank 12Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

1806S.W.A.T.

Season APEX 69.6Event APEX 55.08Rank 15Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 384.7 ±12.2

5801CTC Inspire

Season APEX 164.1Event APEX 35.09Rank 23Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1730Team Driven

Season APEX 119.4Event APEX 87.94Rank 6Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3184Blaze Robotics

Season APEX 101.2Event APEX 93.91Rank 9Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1997, 9570, 1806

/ 100 compat

Projected

126.4 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 1997, 9570, 1806

Auto

22.9 18%

Teleop

72.2 57%

Endgame

32.5 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5801, 1730, 3184

/ 100 compat

Projected

216.9 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 5801, 1730, 3184

Auto

32.5 15%

Teleop

119.3 56%

Endgame

59.4 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.14 · Blue 2.32

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score126.4pts

Blue projected score216.9pts

Red win probability24%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 70%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -90.5
Score range: 92–251
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 441 vs event baseline 191.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

242.5Season APEX384.7

22.9Auto32.5

72.2Teleop119.3

32.5Endgame59.4

73Consistency29

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	48
teleop	69	163
endgame	65	66
foul	5	5
total	159	282

Result

Final score

159 – 282

Prediction correct · off by 48.8 pts

Match videos

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