Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

248.22 – 154.01

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

221 – 177

Prediction correct · off by 25.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 492.7 ±12.2

1982Cougar Robotics

Season APEX 57.1Event APEX 7.93Rank 38Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1939THE KUHNIGHTS

Season APEX 214Event APEX 110.6Rank 4Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5809The Jesubots 5809

Season APEX 221.6Event APEX 129.69Rank 13Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 248 ±13.9

1802Team Stealth

Season APEX 112.6Event APEX 89.84Rank 14Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4455The Burger Bots

Season APEX 53.8Event APEX -0.01Rank 30Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

1723The FBI - FIRST Bots of Independence

Season APEX 81.6Event APEX 64.18Rank 10Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1982, 1939, 5809

/ 100 compat

Projected

248.2 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 1982, 1939, 5809

Auto

48.5 20%

Teleop

125.0 53%

Endgame

64.1 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1802, 4455, 1723

/ 100 compat

Projected

154 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 1802, 4455, 1723

Auto

43.6 29%

Teleop

64.0 43%

Endgame

42.4 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.16 · Blue 1.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score248.2pts

Blue projected score154pts

Red win probability76%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 94.2
Score range: 120–282
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 398 vs event baseline 191.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

492.7Season APEX248

48.5Auto43.6

125Teleop64

64.1Endgame42.4

23Consistency63

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	23
teleop	91	82
endgame	88	72
foul	0	0
total	221	177

Result

Final score

221 – 177

Prediction correct · off by 25.1 pts

Match videos

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