Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

359.2 – 149.27

93%7%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

305 – 198

Prediction correct · off by 51.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 570 ±11

1208Metool Brigade

Season APEX 70.4Event APEX 23.52Rank 26Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1710The Ravonics Revolution

Season APEX 266.5Event APEX 194.13Rank 7Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1108Panther Robotics

Season APEX 233.1Event APEX 141.55Rank 3Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 268.2 ±12.7

9445The Brave Bots

Season APEX 72.1Event APEX 17.64Rank 31Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4329Lutheran Roboteers

Season APEX 76.6Event APEX 66.83Rank 24Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5268The BioMech Falcons

Season APEX 119.5Event APEX 64.8Rank 11Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1208, 1710, 1108

/ 100 compat

Projected

359.2 pts

~2.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 1208, 1710, 1108

Auto

54.3 15%

Teleop

216.1 61%

Endgame

85.9 24%

Strengths

· 1710 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9445, 4329, 5268

/ 100 compat

Projected

149.3 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 9445, 4329, 5268

Auto

43.3 30%

Teleop

77.8 54%

Endgame

23.3 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.61 · Blue 0.85

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score359.2pts

Blue projected score149.3pts

Red win probability93%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 209.9
Score range: 115–393
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 503 vs event baseline 190.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

570Season APEX268.2

54.3Auto43.3

216.1Teleop77.8

85.9Endgame23.3

16Consistency1

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	79	39
teleop	181	95
endgame	40	64
foul	5	0
total	305	198

Result

Final score

305 – 198

Prediction correct · off by 51.5 pts

Match videos

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