Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

294.24 – 231.29

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

254 – 162

Prediction correct · off by 54.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 539.8 ±9.8

4766Team SCREAM Jr.

Season APEX 206.1Event APEX 136.24Rank 5Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2040DERT - Dunlap Eagles Robotics Team

Season APEX 192Event APEX 126.94Rank 8Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5968Little Apple Cyborgs

Season APEX 141.7Event APEX 31.06Rank 28Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 384.7 ±12.2

5801CTC Inspire

Season APEX 164.1Event APEX 40.32Rank 23Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1730Team Driven

Season APEX 119.4Event APEX 92.73Rank 6Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3184Blaze Robotics

Season APEX 101.2Event APEX 98.24Rank 9Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4766, 2040, 5968

/ 100 compat

Projected

294.2 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 4766, 2040, 5968

Auto

37.7 13%

Teleop

169.8 58%

Endgame

86.4 29%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5801, 1730, 3184

/ 100 compat

Projected

231.3 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 5801, 1730, 3184

Auto

28.6 13%

Teleop

136.6 61%

Endgame

60.4 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.01 · Blue 1.43

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score294.2pts

Blue projected score231.3pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 70%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 63
Score range: 197–328
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 416 vs event baseline 190.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

539.8Season APEX384.7

37.7Auto28.6

169.8Teleop136.6

86.4Endgame60.4

84Consistency19

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	45
teleop	142	52
endgame	89	60
foul	0	5
total	254	162

Result

Final score

254 – 162

Prediction correct · off by 54.8 pts

Match videos

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