Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

319.32 – 288.6

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

221 – 283

Prediction missed · off by 52 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 570 ±11

1208Metool Brigade

Season APEX 70.4Event APEX 10.86Rank 26Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1710The Ravonics Revolution

Season APEX 266.5Event APEX 180.07Rank 7Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1108Panther Robotics

Season APEX 233.1Event APEX 128.39Rank 3Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 539.8 ±9.8

4766Team SCREAM Jr.

Season APEX 206.1Event APEX 134Rank 5Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2040DERT - Dunlap Eagles Robotics Team

Season APEX 192Event APEX 125.62Rank 8Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5968Little Apple Cyborgs

Season APEX 141.7Event APEX 28.98Rank 28Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1208, 1710, 1108

/ 100 compat

Projected

319.3 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 1208, 1710, 1108

Auto

48.5 15%

Teleop

190.8 60%

Endgame

76.7 24%

Strengths

· 1710 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4766, 2040, 5968

/ 100 compat

Projected

288.6 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 4766, 2040, 5968

Auto

37.4 13%

Teleop

163.6 57%

Endgame

86.3 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.93 · Blue 1.45

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score319.3pts

Blue projected score288.6pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 30.7
Score range: 254–354
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 504 vs event baseline 197.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

570Season APEX539.8

48.5Auto37.4

190.8Teleop163.6

76.7Endgame86.3

29Consistency81

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	66
teleop	85	157
endgame	90	60
foul	35	0
total	221	283

Result

Final score

221 – 283

Prediction missed · off by 52 pts

Match videos

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