Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

237.76 – 227.83

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

275 – 150

Prediction correct · off by 57.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 492.7 ±12.2

1982Cougar Robotics

Season APEX 57.1Event APEX 4.55Rank 38Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1939THE KUHNIGHTS

Season APEX 214Event APEX 107.38Rank 4Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5809The Jesubots 5809

Season APEX 221.6Event APEX 125.83Rank 13Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 384.7 ±12.2

5801CTC Inspire

Season APEX 164.1Event APEX 37.62Rank 23Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1730Team Driven

Season APEX 119.4Event APEX 92.01Rank 6Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3184Blaze Robotics

Season APEX 101.2Event APEX 98.2Rank 9Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1982, 1939, 5809

/ 100 compat

Projected

237.8 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 1982, 1939, 5809

Auto

46.0 20%

Teleop

111.2 48%

Endgame

73.1 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5801, 1730, 3184

/ 100 compat

Projected

227.8 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 5801, 1730, 3184

Auto

35.0 16%

Teleop

127.4 57%

Endgame

59.8 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.7 · Blue 1.75

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score237.8pts

Blue projected score227.8pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 70%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 9.9
Score range: 193–273
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 425 vs event baseline 195.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

492.7Season APEX384.7

46Auto35

111.2Teleop127.4

73.1Endgame59.8

40Consistency36

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	56	32
teleop	133	79
endgame	86	39
foul	0	0
total	275	150

Result

Final score

275 – 150

Prediction correct · off by 57.5 pts

Match videos

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