Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

140.01 – 153.17

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

225 – 99

Prediction missed · off by 69.6 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 400.8 ±13.5

1939THE KUHNIGHTS

Season APEX 214Event APEX 73.94Rank 4Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7064Voltron Robotics

Season APEX 67.4Event APEX 15.21Rank 25Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

1730Team Driven

Season APEX 119.4Event APEX 50.86Rank 6Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 265.5 ±13.9

2410Blue Valley CAPS Metal Mustangs

Season APEX 47.4Event APEX 56.18Rank 33Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

4213MetalCow Robotics

Season APEX 98.6Event APEX 67.43Rank 20Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5268The BioMech Falcons

Season APEX 119.5Event APEX 29.56Rank 11Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1939, 7064, 1730

/ 100 compat

Projected

140 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 1939, 7064, 1730

Auto

21.0 16%

Teleop

72.1 56%

Endgame

36.8 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2410, 4213, 5268

/ 100 compat

Projected

153.2 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 2410, 4213, 5268

Auto

36.1 24%

Teleop

88.2 58%

Endgame

27.3 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.69 · Blue 1.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score140pts

Blue projected score153.2pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -13.2
Score range: 107–186
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 324 vs event baseline 186.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

400.8Season APEX265.5

21Auto36.1

72.1Teleop88.2

36.8Endgame27.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	34
teleop	129	33
endgame	44	32
foul	20	0
total	225	99

Result

Final score

225 – 99

Prediction missed · off by 69.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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