Qualification · Qualification 76

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

150.58 – 177.37

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

125 – 162

Prediction correct · off by 20.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 221.2 ±12.7

1785Blue Springs Robocats

Season APEX 50.2Event APEX 14.89Rank 37Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1825The Cyborgs

Season APEX 94.4Event APEX 68.08Rank 19Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

4329Lutheran Roboteers

Season APEX 76.6Event APEX 67.61Rank 24Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 256 ±13.3

3184Blaze Robotics

Season APEX 101.2Event APEX 98.42Rank 9Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9570Valiant

Season APEX 92.2Event APEX 50.98Rank 12Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

681710 Factorial

Season APEX 62.6Event APEX 27.97Rank 21Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1785, 1825, 4329

/ 100 compat

Projected

150.6 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 1785, 1825, 4329

Auto

39.4 25%

Teleop

80.2 52%

Endgame

36.0 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3184, 9570, 6817

/ 100 compat

Projected

177.4 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 3184, 9570, 6817

Auto

19.2 11%

Teleop

111.0 63%

Endgame

46.1 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.6 · Blue 1.89

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score150.6pts

Blue projected score177.4pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 69%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -26.8
Score range: 117–211
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 287 vs event baseline 189.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

221.2Season APEX256

39.4Auto19.2

80.2Teleop111

36Endgame46.1

26Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	21
teleop	61	75
endgame	31	66
foul	0	0
total	125	162

Result

Final score

125 – 162

Prediction correct · off by 20.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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