Qualification · Qualification 75

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

175.87 – 249.5

29%71%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

224 – 338

Prediction correct · off by 68.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 423.5 ±12.4

2040DERT - Dunlap Eagles Robotics Team

Season APEX 192Event APEX 122.49Rank 8Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5801CTC Inspire

Season APEX 164.1Event APEX 37.05Rank 23Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7064Voltron Robotics

Season APEX 67.4Event APEX 16.33Rank 25Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 403.8 ±13.9

5809The Jesubots 5809

Season APEX 221.6Event APEX 119.74Rank 13Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1802Team Stealth

Season APEX 112.6Event APEX 81.2Rank 14Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1806S.W.A.T.

Season APEX 69.6Event APEX 48.56Rank 15Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2040, 5801, 7064

/ 100 compat

Projected

175.9 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 2040, 5801, 7064

Auto

19.0 11%

Teleop

103.1 58%

Endgame

54.5 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5809, 1802, 1806

/ 100 compat

Projected

249.5 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 5809, 1802, 1806

Auto

55.3 23%

Teleop

121.6 50%

Endgame

65.3 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.3 · Blue 2.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score175.9pts

Blue projected score249.5pts

Red win probability29%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -73.6
Score range: 142–284
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 562 vs event baseline 188.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

423.5Season APEX403.8

19Auto55.3

103.1Teleop121.6

54.5Endgame65.3

19Consistency56

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	68
teleop	113	186
endgame	81	84
foul	5	0
total	224	338

Result

Final score

224 – 338

Prediction correct · off by 68.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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