Qualification · Qualification 68

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

179.83 – 67.58

80%20%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

163 – 32

Prediction correct · off by 26.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 362.8 ±12.2

1785Blue Springs Robocats

Season APEX 50.2Event APEX 15.01Rank 37Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1939THE KUHNIGHTS

Season APEX 214Event APEX 114.12Rank 4Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4213MetalCow Robotics

Season APEX 98.6Event APEX 50.7Rank 20Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 205.5 ±14.5

1827THE HIVE

Season APEX 69.7Event APEX 37.92Rank 36Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 92

5098STING - R

Season APEX 60.2Event APEX 15.57Rank 34Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9428The Cashew Chickens @ Springfield Robotics

Season APEX 75.6Event APEX 14.09Rank 18Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 92

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1785, 1939, 4213

/ 100 compat

Projected

179.8 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 1785, 1939, 4213

Auto

34.8 20%

Teleop

91.6 54%

Endgame

44.6 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1827, 5098, 9428

/ 100 compat

Projected

67.6 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 1827, 5098, 9428

Auto

16.6 25%

Teleop

19.7 30%

Endgame

30.4 46%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.36 · Blue 1.07

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score179.8pts

Blue projected score67.6pts

Red win probability80%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 70%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 112.3
Score range: 34–214
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 195 vs event baseline 190.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

362.8Season APEX205.5

34.8Auto16.6

91.6Teleop19.7

44.6Endgame30.4

49Consistency6

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	12
teleop	63	9
endgame	75	11
foul	0	0
total	163	32

Result

Final score

163 – 32

Prediction correct · off by 26.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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