Qualification · Qualification 67

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

376.81 – 181.41

92%8%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

353 – 266

Prediction correct · off by 54.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 502.7 ±11.7

5268The BioMech Falcons

Season APEX 119.5Event APEX 68.9Rank 11Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4522Team SCREAM

A+

Season APEX 310.1Event APEX 258.9Rank 2Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11195VOLT Robotics

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 49.01Rank 40Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 506.3 ±11.7

2333Sapulpa Robotics Team

Season APEX 143Event APEX 51.5Rank 32Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5968Little Apple Cyborgs

Season APEX 141.7Event APEX 20.05Rank 28Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5809The Jesubots 5809

Season APEX 221.6Event APEX 109.86Rank 13Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5268, 4522, 11195

/ 100 compat

Projected

376.8 pts

~2.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 5268, 4522, 11195

Auto

86.6 23%

Teleop

202.4 54%

Endgame

82.4 22%

Strengths

· 4522 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2333, 5968, 5809

/ 100 compat

Projected

181.4 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 2333, 5968, 5809

Auto

35.6 20%

Teleop

99.0 57%

Endgame

40.0 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.56 · Blue 0.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score376.8pts

Blue projected score181.4pts

Red win probability92%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 195.4
Score range: 147–411
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 619 vs event baseline 188.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

502.7Season APEX506.3

86.6Auto35.6

202.4Teleop99

82.4Endgame40

21Consistency36

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	78	49
teleop	182	144
endgame	93	73
foul	0	0
total	353	266

Result

Final score

353 – 266

Prediction correct · off by 54.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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