Qualification · Qualification 66

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

221.2 – 50.85

89%11%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

241 – 55

Prediction correct · off by 12 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 377.9 ±12.2

5801CTC Inspire

Season APEX 164.1Event APEX 35.19Rank 23Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1802Team Stealth

Season APEX 112.6Event APEX 80.73Rank 14Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3184Blaze Robotics

Season APEX 101.2Event APEX 105.28Rank 9Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 180.7 ±14.5

8770FireBolts

Season APEX 64.3Event APEX 22.81Rank 35Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 89

4455The Burger Bots

Season APEX 53.8Event APEX 0.12Rank 30Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

681710 Factorial

Season APEX 62.6Event APEX 27.92Rank 21Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5801, 1802, 3184

/ 100 compat

Projected

221.2 pts

~2.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 5801, 1802, 3184

Auto

39.0 18%

Teleop

114.2 52%

Endgame

64.5 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8770, 4455, 6817

/ 100 compat

Projected

50.9 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 8770, 4455, 6817

Auto

27.0 58%

Teleop

5.6 12%

Endgame

13.6 29%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.56 · Blue 0.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score221.2pts

Blue projected score50.9pts

Red win probability89%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 70%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 170.4
Score range: 17–255
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-17
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 296 vs event baseline 189.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

377.9Season APEX180.7

39Auto27

114.2Teleop5.6

64.5Endgame13.6

17Consistency49

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	17
teleop	166	24
endgame	55	14
foul	0	0
total	241	55

Result

Final score

241 – 55

Prediction correct · off by 12 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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