Qualification · Qualification 61

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

264.62 – 247.42

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

290 – 177

Prediction correct · off by 47.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 410.9 ±12.4

4766Team SCREAM Jr.

Season APEX 206.1Event APEX 143.45Rank 5Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9570Valiant

Season APEX 92.2Event APEX 45.52Rank 12Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

1802Team Stealth

Season APEX 112.6Event APEX 75.65Rank 14Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 381.2 ±12.9

2040DERT - Dunlap Eagles Robotics Team

Season APEX 192Event APEX 128.53Rank 8Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5268The BioMech Falcons

Season APEX 119.5Event APEX 73.85Rank 11Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1827THE HIVE

Season APEX 69.7Event APEX 45.04Rank 36Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 92

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4766, 9570, 1802

/ 100 compat

Projected

264.6 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 4766, 9570, 1802

Auto

40.8 16%

Teleop

144.6 56%

Endgame

74.9 29%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2040, 5268, 1827

/ 100 compat

Projected

247.4 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 2040, 5268, 1827

Auto

34.2 14%

Teleop

143.5 59%

Endgame

67.1 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.82 · Blue 1.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score264.6pts

Blue projected score247.4pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 17.2
Score range: 213–299
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 467 vs event baseline 191.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

410.9Season APEX381.2

40.8Auto34.2

144.6Teleop143.5

74.9Endgame67.1

52Consistency32

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	17
teleop	181	99
endgame	68	61
foul	0	0
total	290	177

Result

Final score

290 – 177

Prediction correct · off by 47.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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