Qualification · Qualification 60

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

185.88 – 75.31

80%20%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

160 – 172

Prediction missed · off by 61.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 432.6 ±12.4

2333Sapulpa Robotics Team

Season APEX 143Event APEX 53.47Rank 32Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9428The Cashew Chickens @ Springfield Robotics

Season APEX 75.6Event APEX 16.13Rank 18Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 92

1939THE KUHNIGHTS

Season APEX 214Event APEX 116.28Rank 4Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 216.1 ±13.9

4329Lutheran Roboteers

Season APEX 76.6Event APEX 56.74Rank 24Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7064Voltron Robotics

Season APEX 67.4Event APEX 8.02Rank 25Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

9445The Brave Bots

Season APEX 72.1Event APEX 10.55Rank 31Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2333, 9428, 1939

/ 100 compat

Projected

185.9 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 2333, 9428, 1939

Auto

28.8 16%

Teleop

96.8 55%

Endgame

51.1 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4329, 7064, 9445

/ 100 compat

Projected

75.3 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 4329, 7064, 9445

Auto

26.4 37%

Teleop

31.3 44%

Endgame

13.4 19%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.34 · Blue 1.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score185.9pts

Blue projected score75.3pts

Red win probability80%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 110.6
Score range: 40–221
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 332 vs event baseline 191.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

432.6Season APEX216.1

28.8Auto26.4

96.8Teleop31.3

51.1Endgame13.4

9Consistency48

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	34
teleop	100	90
endgame	16	43
foul	5	5
total	160	172

Result

Final score

160 – 172

Prediction missed · off by 61.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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