Qualification · Qualification 59

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

71.78 – 208.38

15%85%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

79 – 151

Prediction correct · off by 32.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 184.4 ±17

11195VOLT Robotics

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 46.9Rank 40Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 95

2410Blue Valley CAPS Metal Mustangs

Season APEX 47.4Event APEX -5.02Rank 33Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

2001HERMES

Provisional

Season APEX 63.9Event APEX 29.9Rank 39Record 3-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 377.7 ±15.6

2560RoboDog

Provisional

Season APEX 82Event APEX 38.48Rank 41Record 2-9-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

681710 Factorial

Season APEX 62.6Event APEX 31.18Rank 21Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1108Panther Robotics

Season APEX 233.1Event APEX 138.72Rank 3Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11195, 2410, 2001

/ 100 compat

Projected

71.8 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 11195, 2410, 2001

Auto

29.1 41%

Teleop

28.1 40%

Endgame

13.2 19%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2560, 6817, 1108

/ 100 compat

Projected

208.4 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 2560, 6817, 1108

Auto

34.5 16%

Teleop

134.0 63%

Endgame

43.1 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.86 · Blue 2.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score71.8pts

Blue projected score208.4pts

Red win probability15%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -136.6
Score range: 37–243
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 230 vs event baseline 193.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

184.4Season APEX377.7

29.1Auto34.5

28.1Teleop134

13.2Endgame43.1

8Consistency7

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	44
teleop	33	53
endgame	24	49
foul	0	5
total	79	151

Result

Final score

79 – 151

Prediction correct · off by 32.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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