Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

381.55 – 253.14

83%17%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

332 – 240

Prediction correct · off by 31.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 503.9 ±12.4

1987Broncobots

A+

Season APEX 323.7Event APEX 253.58Rank 1Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1723The FBI - FIRST Bots of Independence

Season APEX 81.6Event APEX 73.82Rank 10Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4213MetalCow Robotics

Season APEX 98.6Event APEX 54.15Rank 20Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 400.3 ±13.3

1764Liberty Robotics

Season APEX 77.5Event APEX 37.79Rank 22Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3184Blaze Robotics

Season APEX 101.2Event APEX 103.47Rank 9Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5809The Jesubots 5809

Season APEX 221.6Event APEX 111.88Rank 13Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1987, 1723, 4213

/ 100 compat

Projected

381.5 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 1987, 1723, 4213

Auto

74.2 19%

Teleop

212.4 56%

Endgame

94.0 25%

Strengths

· 1987 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 74%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1764, 3184, 5809

/ 100 compat

Projected

253.1 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 1764, 3184, 5809

Auto

42.9 18%

Teleop

131.7 54%

Endgame

68.1 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 74%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.48 · Blue 1.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score381.5pts

Blue projected score253.1pts

Red win probability83%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 74%, blue 71%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 128.4
Score range: 219–416
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 572 vs event baseline 191.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

503.9Season APEX400.3

74.2Auto42.9

212.4Teleop131.7

94Endgame68.1

112Consistency2

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	16
teleop	187	137
endgame	93	87
foul	20	0
total	332	240

Result

Final score

332 – 240

Prediction correct · off by 31.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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