Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

277.75 – 135.78

85%15%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

319 – 68

Prediction correct · off by 54.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 472.3 ±12.4

11171Hi Gear

Season APEX 105.1Event APEX 28.46Rank 17Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 92

1982Cougar Robotics

Season APEX 57.1Event APEX -2.62Rank 38Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4522Team SCREAM

A+

Season APEX 310.1Event APEX 251.91Rank 2Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 205.9 ±13.9

1208Metool Brigade

Season APEX 70.4Event APEX 39.08Rank 26Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8112Cyclotrons

Season APEX 65.9Event APEX 41.33Rank 16Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 92

1806S.W.A.T.

Season APEX 69.6Event APEX 55.37Rank 15Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11171, 1982, 4522

/ 100 compat

Projected

277.8 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 11171, 1982, 4522

Auto

69.6 25%

Teleop

137.2 49%

Endgame

73.2 26%

Strengths

· 4522 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1208, 8112, 1806

/ 100 compat

Projected

135.8 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 1208, 8112, 1806

Auto

27.7 20%

Teleop

71.6 53%

Endgame

36.4 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.36 · Blue 0.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score277.8pts

Blue projected score135.8pts

Red win probability85%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 142
Score range: 102–312
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 387 vs event baseline 190.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

472.3Season APEX205.9

69.6Auto27.7

137.2Teleop71.6

73.2Endgame36.4

43Consistency56

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	86	16
teleop	141	21
endgame	87	31
foul	5	0
total	319	68

Result

Final score

319 – 68

Prediction correct · off by 54.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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