Qualification · Qualification 55

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

122.46 – 81.25

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

66 – 53

Prediction correct · off by 42.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 229.9 ±12.1

1785Blue Springs Robocats

Season APEX 50.2Event APEX 21Rank 37Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5268The BioMech Falcons

Season APEX 119.5Event APEX 80.92Rank 11Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5098STING - R

Season APEX 60.2Event APEX 20.54Rank 34Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 213.7 ±17.5

7064Voltron Robotics

Season APEX 67.4Event APEX 12.62Rank 25Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

2560RoboDog

Provisional

Season APEX 82Event APEX 43.04Rank 41Record 2-9-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

8770FireBolts

Season APEX 64.3Event APEX 25.59Rank 35Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 89

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1785, 5268, 5098

/ 100 compat

Projected

122.5 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 1785, 5268, 5098

Auto

26.5 22%

Teleop

63.9 54%

Endgame

28.3 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7064, 2560, 8770

/ 100 compat

Projected

81.3 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 7064, 2560, 8770

Auto

24.6 30%

Teleop

33.3 41%

Endgame

23.5 29%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.92 · Blue 1.38

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score122.5pts

Blue projected score81.3pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 41.2
Score range: 46–157
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 119 vs event baseline 193.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

229.9Season APEX213.7

26.5Auto24.6

63.9Teleop33.3

28.3Endgame23.5

49Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	16
teleop	11	22
endgame	23	15
foul	0	0
total	66	53

Result

Final score

66 – 53

Prediction correct · off by 42.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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