Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

115.73 – 64.48

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

205 – 72

Prediction correct · off by 48.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 291.6 ±12.9

2410Blue Valley CAPS Metal Mustangs

Season APEX 47.4Event APEX -17.62Rank 33Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

3184Blaze Robotics

Season APEX 101.2Event APEX 92.24Rank 9Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2333Sapulpa Robotics Team

Season APEX 143Event APEX 41.11Rank 32Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 222.5 ±14.5

9445The Brave Bots

Season APEX 72.1Event APEX 10.8Rank 31Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1997STAGROBOTICS

Season APEX 80.7Event APEX 11.37Rank 27Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1827THE HIVE

Season APEX 69.7Event APEX 42.31Rank 36Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 92

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2410, 3184, 2333

/ 100 compat

Projected

115.7 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 2410, 3184, 2333

Auto

15.1 13%

Teleop

55.9 50%

Endgame

41.6 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9445, 1997, 1827

/ 100 compat

Projected

64.5 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 9445, 1997, 1827

Auto

14.3 25%

Teleop

19.6 34%

Endgame

23.5 41%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.98 · Blue 1.33

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score115.7pts

Blue projected score64.5pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 51.3
Score range: 29–151
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 277 vs event baseline 194.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

291.6Season APEX222.5

15.1Auto14.3

55.9Teleop19.6

41.6Endgame23.5

7Consistency104

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	21
teleop	125	32
endgame	38	14
foul	10	5
total	205	72

Result

Final score

205 – 72

Prediction correct · off by 48.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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