Qualification · Qualification 52

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

269.46 – 204.71

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

358 – 231

Prediction correct · off by 57.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 409 ±12.9

1710The Ravonics Revolution

Season APEX 266.5Event APEX 183.6Rank 7Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4329Lutheran Roboteers

Season APEX 76.6Event APEX 49.44Rank 24Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8112Cyclotrons

Season APEX 65.9Event APEX 36.42Rank 16Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 92

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 325.5 ±15.6

1806S.W.A.T.

Season APEX 69.6Event APEX 53.27Rank 15Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

2001HERMES

Provisional

Season APEX 63.9Event APEX 24.65Rank 39Record 3-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

2040DERT - Dunlap Eagles Robotics Team

Season APEX 192Event APEX 126.79Rank 8Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1710, 4329, 8112

/ 100 compat

Projected

269.5 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 1710, 4329, 8112

Auto

58.6 22%

Teleop

161.3 60%

Endgame

51.0 19%

Strengths

· 1710 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1806, 2001, 2040

/ 100 compat

Projected

204.7 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 1806, 2001, 2040

Auto

33.7 16%

Teleop

115.9 56%

Endgame

56.9 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.19 · Blue 1.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score269.5pts

Blue projected score204.7pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 68%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 64.7
Score range: 171–303
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 589 vs event baseline 189.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

409Season APEX325.5

58.6Auto33.7

161.3Teleop115.9

51Endgame56.9

13Consistency97

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	64	15
teleop	214	112
endgame	80	104
foul	0	0
total	358	231

Result

Final score

358 – 231

Prediction correct · off by 57.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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