Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

102.65 – 248.96

14%86%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

97 – 219

Prediction correct · off by 17.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 195.9 ±13.3

681710 Factorial

Season APEX 62.6Event APEX 32.65Rank 21Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11195VOLT Robotics

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 45.68Rank 40Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 95

5098STING - R

Season APEX 60.2Event APEX 24.32Rank 34Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 382.2 ±12.4

4213MetalCow Robotics

Season APEX 98.6Event APEX 59.46Rank 20Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1764Liberty Robotics

Season APEX 77.5Event APEX 44.74Rank 22Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4766Team SCREAM Jr.

Season APEX 206.1Event APEX 144.76Rank 5Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6817, 11195, 5098

/ 100 compat

Projected

102.7 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 6817, 11195, 5098

Auto

15.5 16%

Teleop

53.5 55%

Endgame

28.5 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4213, 1764, 4766

/ 100 compat

Projected

249 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 4213, 1764, 4766

Auto

17.9 7%

Teleop

135.8 56%

Endgame

90.2 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.93 · Blue 2.51

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score102.7pts

Blue projected score249pts

Red win probability14%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 73%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -146.3
Score range: 69–283
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 316 vs event baseline 188.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

195.9Season APEX382.2

15.5Auto17.9

53.5Teleop135.8

28.5Endgame90.2

25Consistency47

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	50
teleop	55	126
endgame	16	43
foul	5	0
total	97	219

Result

Final score

97 – 219

Prediction correct · off by 17.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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