Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

233.42 – 169.68

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

178 – 95

Prediction correct · off by 65.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 413.1 ±13.9

1730Team Driven

Season APEX 119.4Event APEX 88.36Rank 6Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5809The Jesubots 5809

Season APEX 221.6Event APEX 124.66Rank 13Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9445The Brave Bots

Season APEX 72.1Event APEX 20.4Rank 31Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 231.6 ±12.7

3184Blaze Robotics

Season APEX 101.2Event APEX 95.91Rank 9Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4329Lutheran Roboteers

Season APEX 76.6Event APEX 70.64Rank 24Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4455The Burger Bots

Season APEX 53.8Event APEX 3.13Rank 30Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1730, 5809, 9445

/ 100 compat

Projected

233.4 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 1730, 5809, 9445

Auto

50.0 23%

Teleop

112.6 51%

Endgame

59.3 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3184, 4329, 4455

/ 100 compat

Projected

169.7 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 3184, 4329, 4455

Auto

38.6 23%

Teleop

84.0 49%

Endgame

47.9 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.13 · Blue 1.31

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score233.4pts

Blue projected score169.7pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 63.7
Score range: 134–269
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 273 vs event baseline 202.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

413.1Season APEX231.6

50Auto38.6

112.6Teleop84

59.3Endgame47.9

51Consistency55

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	23
teleop	71	42
endgame	43	30
foul	35	0
total	178	95

Result

Final score

178 – 95

Prediction correct · off by 65.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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