Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

124.78 – 96.16

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

155 – 73

Prediction correct · off by 26.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 300.1 ±15

11171Hi Gear

Season APEX 105.1Event APEX 23.19Rank 17Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 92

1730Team Driven

Season APEX 119.4Event APEX 86.77Rank 6Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9428The Cashew Chickens @ Springfield Robotics

Season APEX 75.6Event APEX 14.82Rank 18Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 92

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 215.8 ±13.9

1982Cougar Robotics

Season APEX 57.1Event APEX -0.27Rank 38Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8770FireBolts

Season APEX 64.3Event APEX 29.05Rank 35Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 89

1825The Cyborgs

Season APEX 94.4Event APEX 67.38Rank 19Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11171, 1730, 9428

/ 100 compat

Projected

124.8 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 11171, 1730, 9428

Auto

29.5 24%

Teleop

61.9 51%

Endgame

29.1 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1982, 8770, 1825

/ 100 compat

Projected

96.2 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 1982, 8770, 1825

Auto

31.7 31%

Teleop

45.3 44%

Endgame

24.8 24%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.94 · Blue 1.44

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score124.8pts

Blue projected score96.2pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 28.6
Score range: 62–159
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 228 vs event baseline 189.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

300.1Season APEX215.8

29.5Auto31.7

61.9Teleop45.3

29.1Endgame24.8

62Consistency26

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	14
teleop	78	41
endgame	41	18
foul	0	0
total	155	73

Result

Final score

155 – 73

Prediction correct · off by 26.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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