Qualification · Qualification 48

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

72.99 – 24.12

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

56 – 41

Prediction correct · off by 16.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 183.6 ±17

8112Cyclotrons

Season APEX 65.9Event APEX 39.07Rank 16Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 92

2001HERMES

Provisional

Season APEX 63.9Event APEX 27.23Rank 39Record 3-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

4455The Burger Bots

Season APEX 53.8Event APEX 6.69Rank 30Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 281.3 ±13.5

9570Valiant

Season APEX 92.2Event APEX 36.43Rank 12Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

5968Little Apple Cyborgs

Season APEX 141.7Event APEX 7.83Rank 28Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2410Blue Valley CAPS Metal Mustangs

Season APEX 47.4Event APEX -20.14Rank 33Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8112, 2001, 4455

/ 100 compat

Projected

73 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 8112, 2001, 4455

Auto

49.8 65%

Teleop

5.5 7%

Endgame

21.7 28%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9570, 5968, 2410

/ 100 compat

Projected

24.1 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 9570, 5968, 2410

Auto

34.3 100%

Teleop

13.3 47%

Endgame

-19.3 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.89 · Blue 1.31

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score73pts

Blue projected score24.1pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 48.9
Score range: -11–108
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 97 vs event baseline 192.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

183.6Season APEX281.3

49.8Auto34.3

5.5Teleop13.3

21.7Endgame-19.3

47Consistency91

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	23
teleop	23	16
endgame	20	2
foul	0	0
total	56	41

Result

Final score

56 – 41

Prediction correct · off by 16.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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