Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

115.72 – 261.86

14%86%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

155 – 310

Prediction correct · off by 43.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 262.2 ±13.9

9445The Brave Bots

Season APEX 72.1Event APEX 11.93Rank 31Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1764Liberty Robotics

Season APEX 77.5Event APEX 39.66Rank 22Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1802Team Stealth

Season APEX 112.6Event APEX 64.13Rank 14Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 435.5 ±12.2

1710The Ravonics Revolution

Season APEX 266.5Event APEX 177.21Rank 7Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1208Metool Brigade

Season APEX 70.4Event APEX 31.63Rank 26Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4213MetalCow Robotics

Season APEX 98.6Event APEX 53.02Rank 20Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9445, 1764, 1802

/ 100 compat

Projected

115.7 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 9445, 1764, 1802

Auto

20.3 19%

Teleop

47.2 45%

Endgame

37.7 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1710, 1208, 4213

/ 100 compat

Projected

261.9 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 1710, 1208, 4213

Auto

42.9 17%

Teleop

138.0 54%

Endgame

74.9 29%

Strengths

· 1710 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.06 · Blue 2.43

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score115.7pts

Blue projected score261.9pts

Red win probability14%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 71%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -146.1
Score range: 82–296
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 465 vs event baseline 189.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

262.2Season APEX435.5

20.3Auto42.9

47.2Teleop138

37.7Endgame74.9

59Consistency56

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	40
teleop	53	188
endgame	52	77
foul	15	5
total	155	310

Result

Final score

155 – 310

Prediction correct · off by 43.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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