Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

299.79 – 153.34

86%14%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

333 – 116

Prediction correct · off by 35.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 502.1 ±14.3

4766Team SCREAM Jr.

Season APEX 206.1Event APEX 139.14Rank 5Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2560RoboDog

Provisional

Season APEX 82Event APEX 40.3Rank 41Record 2-9-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

1939THE KUHNIGHTS

Season APEX 214Event APEX 120.35Rank 4Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 347.8 ±13.5

8770FireBolts

Season APEX 64.3Event APEX 37.83Rank 35Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 89

1730Team Driven

Season APEX 119.4Event APEX 94.1Rank 6Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5801CTC Inspire

Season APEX 164.1Event APEX 21.41Rank 23Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4766, 2560, 1939

/ 100 compat

Projected

299.8 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 4766, 2560, 1939

Auto

46.8 16%

Teleop

159.2 55%

Endgame

85.4 29%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8770, 1730, 5801

/ 100 compat

Projected

153.3 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 8770, 1730, 5801

Auto

20.2 14%

Teleop

88.7 60%

Endgame

38.0 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.4 · Blue 1.03

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score299.8pts

Blue projected score153.3pts

Red win probability86%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 146.5
Score range: 119–334
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 449 vs event baseline 188.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

502.1Season APEX347.8

46.8Auto20.2

159.2Teleop88.7

85.4Endgame38

40Consistency113

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	37
teleop	182	70
endgame	101	4
foul	15	5
total	333	116

Result

Final score

333 – 116

Prediction correct · off by 35.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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