Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

319.26 – 164.11

87%13%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

241 – 253

Prediction missed · off by 83.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 460.5 ±12.4

9031Wildbots

Season APEX 76.6Event APEX 27.76Rank 29Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 92

1987Broncobots

A+

Season APEX 323.7Event APEX 251.59Rank 1Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5098STING - R

Season APEX 60.2Event APEX 39.91Rank 34Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 327.4 ±12.8

4455The Burger Bots

Season APEX 53.8Event APEX -2.2Rank 30Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

2040DERT - Dunlap Eagles Robotics Team

Season APEX 192Event APEX 119.53Rank 8Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1723The FBI - FIRST Bots of Independence

Season APEX 81.6Event APEX 46.78Rank 10Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9031, 1987, 5098

/ 100 compat

Projected

319.3 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 9031, 1987, 5098

Auto

78.5 25%

Teleop

176.7 57%

Endgame

57.4 18%

Strengths

· 1987 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4455, 2040, 1723

/ 100 compat

Projected

164.1 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 4455, 2040, 1723

Auto

44.1 27%

Teleop

73.4 45%

Endgame

45.3 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.53 · Blue 0.93

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score319.3pts

Blue projected score164.1pts

Red win probability87%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 155.1
Score range: 130–353
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 494 vs event baseline 187.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

460.5Season APEX327.4

78.5Auto44.1

176.7Teleop73.4

57.4Endgame45.3

82Consistency140

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	38
teleop	137	117
endgame	75	98
foul	0	0
total	241	253

Result

Final score

241 – 253

Prediction missed · off by 83.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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