Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

94.09 – 156.9

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

95 – 69

Prediction missed · off by 44.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 237.4 ±15

1827THE HIVE

Season APEX 69.7Event APEX 38.18Rank 36Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 92

11171Hi Gear

Season APEX 105.1Event APEX 17.04Rank 17Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 92

681710 Factorial

Season APEX 62.6Event APEX 38.87Rank 21Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 346.1 ±13.9

5809The Jesubots 5809

Season APEX 221.6Event APEX 116.05Rank 13Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7064Voltron Robotics

Season APEX 67.4Event APEX 25.53Rank 25Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

1982Cougar Robotics

Season APEX 57.1Event APEX 15.32Rank 38Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1827, 11171, 6817

/ 100 compat

Projected

94.1 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 1827, 11171, 6817

Auto

6.7 7%

Teleop

37.8 41%

Endgame

48.0 52%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5809, 7064, 1982

/ 100 compat

Projected

156.9 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 5809, 7064, 1982

Auto

42.9 29%

Teleop

63.6 43%

Endgame

42.2 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.32 · Blue 1.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score94.1pts

Blue projected score156.9pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -62.8
Score range: 60–191
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 164 vs event baseline 191.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

237.4Season APEX346.1

6.7Auto42.9

37.8Teleop63.6

48Endgame42.2

2Consistency48

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	19
teleop	53	24
endgame	20	26
foul	0	0
total	95	69

Result

Final score

95 – 69

Prediction missed · off by 44.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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