Qualification · Qualification 41
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
201.31 – 90.09
80%20%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
96 – 181
Prediction missed · off by 98.1 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 324.9 ±15.1
Season APEX 141.7Event APEX 33.03Rank 28Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 101.2Event APEX 114.04Rank 9Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97
2560RoboDog
Provisional
Season APEX 82Event APEX 54.24Rank 41Record 2-9-0Status provisionalConfidence 74
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 331.8 ±12.9
Season APEX 214Event APEX 107.1Rank 4Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 70.4Event APEX 5.99Rank 26Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 47.4Event APEX -23Rank 33Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 5968, 3184, 2560
62
/ 100 compatProjected
201.3 pts
~2.2 RP (regional)
Teams: 5968, 3184, 2560
Auto
27.2 13%
Teleop
116.2 57%
Endgame
60.5 30%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 58%
Supercharged: 4%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 1939, 1208, 2410
43
/ 100 compatProjected
90.1 pts
~1.0 RP (regional)
Teams: 1939, 1208, 2410
Auto
22.9 26%
Teleop
43.4 50%
Endgame
20.6 24%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 58%
Supercharged: 4%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.24 · Blue 1.01
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score201.3pts
Blue projected score90.1pts
Red win probability80%
Event bonus sample182alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 58%, blue 54%
Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 5%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 111.2
- Score range
- 55–236
- Upset likelihood
- 20%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
324.9Season APEX331.8
27.2Auto22.9
116.2Teleop43.4
60.5Endgame20.6
52Consistency2
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 39 | 58 |
| teleop | 45 | 86 |
| endgame | 12 | 17 |
| foul | 0 | 20 |
| total | 96 | 181 |
Result
Final score
96 – 181
Prediction missed · off by 98.1 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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