Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

89.42 – 391.97

2%98%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

220 – 402

Prediction correct · off by 70.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 424 ±11.2

5801CTC Inspire

Season APEX 164.1Event APEX 5.44Rank 23Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4455The Burger Bots

Season APEX 53.8Event APEX -29.15Rank 30Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

4766Team SCREAM Jr.

Season APEX 206.1Event APEX 113.13Rank 5Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 579.6 ±11.2

4522Team SCREAM

A+

Season APEX 310.1Event APEX 227.7Rank 2Record 10-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2040DERT - Dunlap Eagles Robotics Team

Season APEX 192Event APEX 113.91Rank 8Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1764Liberty Robotics

Season APEX 77.5Event APEX 50.36Rank 22Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5801, 4455, 4766

/ 100 compat

Projected

89.4 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 5801, 4455, 4766

Auto

26.8 30%

Teleop

25.8 29%

Endgame

35.9 41%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4522, 2040, 1764

/ 100 compat

Projected

392 pts

~2.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 4522, 2040, 1764

Auto

87.0 22%

Teleop

191.7 49%

Endgame

109.6 28%

Strengths

· 4522 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.69 · Blue 2.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score89.4pts

Blue projected score392pts

Red win probability2%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 70%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -302.5
Score range: 55–426
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 622 vs event baseline 189.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

424Season APEX579.6

26.8Auto87

25.8Teleop191.7

35.9Endgame109.6

146Consistency123

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	38
teleop	108	264
endgame	79	100
foul	5	0
total	220	402

Result

Final score

220 – 402

Prediction correct · off by 70.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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