Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

130.05 – 219.84

25%75%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

150 – 203

Prediction correct · off by 18.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 269.9 ±13.3

1802Team Stealth

Season APEX 112.6Event APEX 66.46Rank 14Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4329Lutheran Roboteers

Season APEX 76.6Event APEX 44.14Rank 24Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1997STAGROBOTICS

Season APEX 80.7Event APEX 19.45Rank 27Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 358.9 ±12.9

9428The Cashew Chickens @ Springfield Robotics

Season APEX 75.6Event APEX 34.12Rank 18Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 92

1108Panther Robotics

Season APEX 233.1Event APEX 152.16Rank 3Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1785Blue Springs Robocats

Season APEX 50.2Event APEX 33.56Rank 37Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1802, 4329, 1997

/ 100 compat

Projected

130 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 1802, 4329, 1997

Auto

45.2 35%

Teleop

58.1 45%

Endgame

26.4 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9428, 1108, 1785

/ 100 compat

Projected

219.8 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 9428, 1108, 1785

Auto

27.6 12%

Teleop

139.9 63%

Endgame

55.4 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.21 · Blue 2.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score130pts

Blue projected score219.8pts

Red win probability25%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -89.8
Score range: 96–254
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 353 vs event baseline 189.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

269.9Season APEX358.9

45.2Auto27.6

58.1Teleop139.9

26.4Endgame55.4

54Consistency28

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	48	38
teleop	90	113
endgame	12	52
foul	0	0
total	150	203

Result

Final score

150 – 203

Prediction correct · off by 18.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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