Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

240.95 – 283.72

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

254 – 210

Prediction missed · off by 43.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 385.7 ±14.5

1825The Cyborgs

Season APEX 94.4Event APEX 92.23Rank 19Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

1827THE HIVE

Season APEX 69.7Event APEX 30.28Rank 36Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 92

5809The Jesubots 5809

Season APEX 221.6Event APEX 118.44Rank 13Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 469.7 ±11

2333Sapulpa Robotics Team

Season APEX 143Event APEX 44.4Rank 32Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1710The Ravonics Revolution

Season APEX 266.5Event APEX 180.48Rank 7Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5098STING - R

Season APEX 60.2Event APEX 58.84Rank 34Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1825, 1827, 5809

/ 100 compat

Projected

241 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 1825, 1827, 5809

Auto

36.7 16%

Teleop

109.7 47%

Endgame

85.5 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2333, 1710, 5098

/ 100 compat

Projected

283.7 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 2333, 1710, 5098

Auto

49.2 18%

Teleop

144.7 53%

Endgame

81.1 29%

Strengths

· 1710 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.5 · Blue 2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score241pts

Blue projected score283.7pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -42.8
Score range: 207–318
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 464 vs event baseline 188.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

385.7Season APEX469.7

36.7Auto49.2

109.7Teleop144.7

85.5Endgame81.1

15Consistency75

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	50	19
teleop	133	130
endgame	71	56
foul	0	5
total	254	210

Result

Final score

254 – 210

Prediction missed · off by 43.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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