Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

166.77 – 55.39

80%20%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

62 – 131

Prediction missed · off by 90.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 214 ±15

11195VOLT Robotics

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 73.31Rank 40Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 95

8770FireBolts

Season APEX 64.3Event APEX 61.17Rank 35Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 89

9031Wildbots

Season APEX 76.6Event APEX 32.29Rank 29Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 92

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 219.6 ±14.5

8112Cyclotrons

Season APEX 65.9Event APEX 27.38Rank 16Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 92

1723The FBI - FIRST Bots of Independence

Season APEX 81.6Event APEX 31.6Rank 10Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9445The Brave Bots

Season APEX 72.1Event APEX -3.59Rank 31Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11195, 8770, 9031

/ 100 compat

Projected

166.8 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 11195, 8770, 9031

Auto

20.8 13%

Teleop

95.7 60%

Endgame

43.0 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8112, 1723, 9445

/ 100 compat

Projected

55.4 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 8112, 1723, 9445

Auto

25.8 47%

Teleop

1.3 2%

Endgame

27.3 50%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.29 · Blue 1.14

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score166.8pts

Blue projected score55.4pts

Red win probability80%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 111.4
Score range: 21–201
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 193 vs event baseline 191.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

214Season APEX219.6

20.8Auto25.8

95.7Teleop1.3

43Endgame27.3

0Consistency109

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	37
teleop	22	59
endgame	12	35
foul	0	0
total	62	131

Result

Final score

62 – 131

Prediction missed · off by 90.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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