Qualification · Qualification 36

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

115.73 – 301.3

9%91%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

155 – 401

Prediction correct · off by 69.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 230.8 ±13.9

4213MetalCow Robotics

Season APEX 98.6Event APEX 41.95Rank 20Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1806S.W.A.T.

Season APEX 69.6Event APEX 37.78Rank 15Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

681710 Factorial

Season APEX 62.6Event APEX 36Rank 21Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 548.3 ±12.4

5268The BioMech Falcons

Season APEX 119.5Event APEX 79.7Rank 11Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11171Hi Gear

Season APEX 105.1Event APEX -8.94Rank 17Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 92

1987Broncobots

A+

Season APEX 323.7Event APEX 230.54Rank 1Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4213, 1806, 6817

/ 100 compat

Projected

115.7 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 4213, 1806, 6817

Auto

28.6 24%

Teleop

43.5 36%

Endgame

49.1 41%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5268, 11171, 1987

/ 100 compat

Projected

301.3 pts

~2.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 5268, 11171, 1987

Auto

68.1 23%

Teleop

167.5 56%

Endgame

64.2 21%

Strengths

· 1987 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.9 · Blue 2.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score115.7pts

Blue projected score301.3pts

Red win probability9%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 68%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -185.6
Score range: 82–335
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 556 vs event baseline 188.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

230.8Season APEX548.3

28.6Auto68.1

43.5Teleop167.5

49.1Endgame64.2

118Consistency169

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	98
teleop	96	228
endgame	27	70
foul	10	5
total	155	401

Result

Final score

155 – 401

Prediction correct · off by 69.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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