Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

121.93 – 106.68

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

45 – 198

Prediction missed · off by 84.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 206.9 ±17.5

2001HERMES

Provisional

Season APEX 63.9Event APEX 36.79Rank 39Record 3-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

9428The Cashew Chickens @ Springfield Robotics

Season APEX 75.6Event APEX 49.7Rank 18Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 92

7064Voltron Robotics

Season APEX 67.4Event APEX 35.44Rank 25Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 268.7 ±13.3

1730Team Driven

Season APEX 119.4Event APEX 85.3Rank 6Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1982Cougar Robotics

Season APEX 57.1Event APEX 4.87Rank 38Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9570Valiant

Season APEX 92.2Event APEX 16.51Rank 12Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2001, 9428, 7064

/ 100 compat

Projected

121.9 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 2001, 9428, 7064

Auto

30.7 24%

Teleop

60.4 48%

Endgame

35.1 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1730, 1982, 9570

/ 100 compat

Projected

106.7 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 1730, 1982, 9570

Auto

28.9 30%

Teleop

64.1 66%

Endgame

4.4 5%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.73 · Blue 1.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score121.9pts

Blue projected score106.7pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 15.3
Score range: 73–156
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 243 vs event baseline 190.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

206.9Season APEX268.7

30.7Auto28.9

60.4Teleop64.1

35.1Endgame4.4

0Consistency126

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	34
teleop	8	115
endgame	12	49
foul	0	0
total	45	198

Result

Final score

45 – 198

Prediction missed · off by 84.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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