Qualification · Qualification 34

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

263.32 – 89.53

90%10%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

312 – 61

Prediction correct · off by 38.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 487.9 ±11.7

5098STING - R

Season APEX 60.2Event APEX 57.64Rank 34Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4766Team SCREAM Jr.

Season APEX 206.1Event APEX 88.9Rank 5Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5809The Jesubots 5809

Season APEX 221.6Event APEX 116.78Rank 13Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 210.2 ±13.9

2410Blue Valley CAPS Metal Mustangs

Season APEX 47.4Event APEX -9.58Rank 33Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

1785Blue Springs Robocats

Season APEX 50.2Event APEX 32.93Rank 37Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1802Team Stealth

Season APEX 112.6Event APEX 66.18Rank 14Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5098, 4766, 5809

/ 100 compat

Projected

263.3 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 5098, 4766, 5809

Auto

27.6 11%

Teleop

145.4 57%

Endgame

82.1 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2410, 1785, 1802

/ 100 compat

Projected

89.5 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 2410, 1785, 1802

Auto

53.7 58%

Teleop

17.4 19%

Endgame

21.5 23%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.48 · Blue 0.86

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score263.3pts

Blue projected score89.5pts

Red win probability90%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 173.8
Score range: 56–297
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 373 vs event baseline 190.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

487.9Season APEX210.2

27.6Auto53.7

145.4Teleop17.4

82.1Endgame21.5

91Consistency42

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	54	13
teleop	134	41
endgame	109	7
foul	15	0
total	312	61

Result

Final score

312 – 61

Prediction correct · off by 38.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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