Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

304.56 – 132.27

90%10%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

314 – 125

Prediction correct · off by 8.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 547 ±12.4

1710The Ravonics Revolution

Season APEX 266.5Event APEX 175.82Rank 7Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1108Panther Robotics

Season APEX 233.1Event APEX 123.96Rank 3Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2410Blue Valley CAPS Metal Mustangs

Season APEX 47.4Event APEX 4.78Rank 33Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 258.2 ±12.7

1723The FBI - FIRST Bots of Independence

Season APEX 81.6Event APEX 64.91Rank 10Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5268The BioMech Falcons

Season APEX 119.5Event APEX 65.8Rank 11Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1982Cougar Robotics

Season APEX 57.1Event APEX 1.56Rank 38Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1710, 1108, 2410

/ 100 compat

Projected

304.6 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 1710, 1108, 2410

Auto

55.4 18%

Teleop

174.6 58%

Endgame

69.6 23%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1723, 5268, 1982

/ 100 compat

Projected

132.3 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 1723, 5268, 1982

Auto

28.0 21%

Teleop

58.9 45%

Endgame

44.5 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.52 · Blue 0.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score304.6pts

Blue projected score132.3pts

Red win probability90%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 172.3
Score range: 96–341
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 439 vs event baseline 202.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

547Season APEX258.2

55.4Auto28

174.6Teleop58.9

69.6Endgame44.5

53Consistency56

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	76	35
teleop	196	49
endgame	42	36
foul	0	5
total	314	125

Result

Final score

314 – 125

Prediction correct · off by 8.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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