Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

215.55 – 115.34

78%22%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

167 – 16

Prediction correct · off by 73.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 344.4 ±12.2

9570Valiant

Season APEX 92.2Event APEX 33.14Rank 12Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

5098STING - R

Season APEX 60.2Event APEX 60.78Rank 34Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2040DERT - Dunlap Eagles Robotics Team

Season APEX 192Event APEX 121.63Rank 8Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 203.1 ±13.4

1208Metool Brigade

Season APEX 70.4Event APEX 11.06Rank 26Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9428The Cashew Chickens @ Springfield Robotics

Season APEX 75.6Event APEX 74.86Rank 18Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 92

1982Cougar Robotics

Season APEX 57.1Event APEX 29.42Rank 38Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9570, 5098, 2040

/ 100 compat

Projected

215.6 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 9570, 5098, 2040

Auto

30.6 14%

Teleop

130.0 61%

Endgame

52.0 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1208, 9428, 1982

/ 100 compat

Projected

115.3 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 1208, 9428, 1982

Auto

17.2 15%

Teleop

50.1 43%

Endgame

48.4 42%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.26 · Blue 0.99

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score215.6pts

Blue projected score115.3pts

Red win probability78%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 100.2
Score range: 80–251
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 183 vs event baseline 194.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

344.4Season APEX203.1

30.6Auto17.2

130Teleop50.1

52Endgame48.4

96Consistency53

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	11
teleop	115	3
endgame	22	2
foul	0	0
total	167	16

Result

Final score

167 – 16

Prediction correct · off by 73.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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