Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

116.93 – 146.86

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

195 – 116

Prediction missed · off by 54.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 251.2 ±13.3

1785Blue Springs Robocats

Season APEX 50.2Event APEX 22.56Rank 37Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1723The FBI - FIRST Bots of Independence

Season APEX 81.6Event APEX 37.05Rank 10Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1730Team Driven

Season APEX 119.4Event APEX 57.32Rank 6Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 286.4 ±13.5

1764Liberty Robotics

Season APEX 77.5Event APEX 46.09Rank 22Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8112Cyclotrons

Season APEX 65.9Event APEX 57.09Rank 16Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 92

2333Sapulpa Robotics Team

Season APEX 143Event APEX 43.68Rank 32Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1785, 1723, 1730

/ 100 compat

Projected

116.9 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 1785, 1723, 1730

Auto

19.6 19%

Teleop

39.1 37%

Endgame

46.3 44%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1764, 8112, 2333

/ 100 compat

Projected

146.9 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 1764, 8112, 2333

Auto

20.7 14%

Teleop

85.7 58%

Endgame

42.2 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.59 · Blue 1.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score116.9pts

Blue projected score146.9pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 72%, blue 69%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -29.9
Score range: 82–182
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 311 vs event baseline 196.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

251.2Season APEX286.4

19.6Auto20.7

39.1Teleop85.7

46.3Endgame42.2

169Consistency97

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	22
teleop	104	44
endgame	54	50
foul	0	0
total	195	116

Result

Final score

195 – 116

Prediction missed · off by 54.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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