Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

181.72 – 73.37

79%21%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

131 – 143

Prediction missed · off by 60.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 316.9 ±12.2

4213MetalCow Robotics

Season APEX 98.6Event APEX 63.3Rank 20Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4329Lutheran Roboteers

Season APEX 76.6Event APEX 55.94Rank 24Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5968Little Apple Cyborgs

Season APEX 141.7Event APEX 62.48Rank 28Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 339.8 ±12.4

1982Cougar Robotics

Season APEX 57.1Event APEX 18.72Rank 38Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4766Team SCREAM Jr.

Season APEX 206.1Event APEX 64.24Rank 5Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9031Wildbots

Season APEX 76.6Event APEX -9.59Rank 29Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 92

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4213, 4329, 5968

/ 100 compat

Projected

181.7 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 4213, 4329, 5968

Auto

44.6 23%

Teleop

104.4 55%

Endgame

41.8 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1982, 4766, 9031

/ 100 compat

Projected

73.4 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 1982, 4766, 9031

Auto

20.7 30%

Teleop

13.2 19%

Endgame

35.0 51%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.3 · Blue 1.02

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score181.7pts

Blue projected score73.4pts

Red win probability79%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 108.4
Score range: 37–218
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 274 vs event baseline 201.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

316.9Season APEX339.8

44.6Auto20.7

104.4Teleop13.2

41.8Endgame35

86Consistency175

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	17
teleop	67	76
endgame	30	50
foul	0	0
total	131	143

Result

Final score

131 – 143

Prediction missed · off by 60.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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