Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

142.99 – 319.18

10%90%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

302 – 296

Prediction missed · off by 91.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 404.7 ±11.6

1108Panther Robotics

Season APEX 233.1Event APEX 122.62Rank 3Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1208Metool Brigade

Season APEX 70.4Event APEX -20.97Rank 26Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3184Blaze Robotics

Season APEX 101.2Event APEX 41.34Rank 9Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 521.1 ±11.7

681710 Factorial

Season APEX 62.6Event APEX 55.56Rank 21Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2040DERT - Dunlap Eagles Robotics Team

Season APEX 192Event APEX 113.59Rank 8Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1710The Ravonics Revolution

Season APEX 266.5Event APEX 150.03Rank 7Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1108, 1208, 3184

/ 100 compat

Projected

143 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 1108, 1208, 3184

Auto

18.7 13%

Teleop

92.7 64%

Endgame

33.5 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6817, 2040, 1710

/ 100 compat

Projected

319.2 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 6817, 2040, 1710

Auto

53.1 16%

Teleop

200.1 62%

Endgame

69.5 22%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.92 · Blue 2.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score143pts

Blue projected score319.2pts

Red win probability10%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -176.2
Score range: 108–354
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 598 vs event baseline 196.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

404.7Season APEX521.1

18.7Auto53.1

92.7Teleop200.1

33.5Endgame69.5

127Consistency72

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	34
teleop	176	154
endgame	111	103
foul	0	5
total	302	296

Result

Final score

302 – 296

Prediction missed · off by 91.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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