Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

51.2 – 149.48

23%77%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

174 – 104

Prediction missed · off by 84.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 292.4 ±13.3

5268The BioMech Falcons

Season APEX 119.5Event APEX 21.2Rank 11Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9570Valiant

Season APEX 92.2Event APEX 11.62Rank 12Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

1997STAGROBOTICS

Season APEX 80.7Event APEX 18.38Rank 27Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 490.8 ±13.5

11171Hi Gear

Season APEX 105.1Event APEX 26.15Rank 17Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 92

5809The Jesubots 5809

Season APEX 221.6Event APEX 120.79Rank 13Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5801CTC Inspire

Season APEX 164.1Event APEX 2.54Rank 23Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5268, 9570, 1997

/ 100 compat

Projected

51.2 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 5268, 9570, 1997

Auto

28.4 63%

Teleop

-6.1 0%

Endgame

22.8 51%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11171, 5809, 5801

/ 100 compat

Projected

149.5 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 11171, 5809, 5801

Auto

22.3 15%

Teleop

84.1 58%

Endgame

39.3 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.12 · Blue 2.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score51.2pts

Blue projected score149.5pts

Red win probability23%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -98.3
Score range: 15–185
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 278 vs event baseline 199.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

292.4Season APEX490.8

28.4Auto22.3

-6.1Teleop84.1

22.8Endgame39.3

137Consistency131

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	27
teleop	133	35
endgame	13	42
foul	0	0
total	174	104

Result

Final score

174 – 104

Prediction missed · off by 84.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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