Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

80.87 – 218.59

15%85%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

99 – 136

Prediction correct · off by 50.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 289.2 ±13.5

9031Wildbots

Season APEX 76.6Event APEX -21.03Rank 29Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 92

2333Sapulpa Robotics Team

Season APEX 143Event APEX 47.49Rank 32Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1806S.W.A.T.

Season APEX 69.6Event APEX 54.41Rank 15Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 329.1 ±13.7

9428The Cashew Chickens @ Springfield Robotics

Season APEX 75.6Event APEX 113.9Rank 18Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 92

2410Blue Valley CAPS Metal Mustangs

Season APEX 47.4Event APEX 28.38Rank 33Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

4766Team SCREAM Jr.

Season APEX 206.1Event APEX 76.31Rank 5Record 9-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9031, 2333, 1806

/ 100 compat

Projected

80.9 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 9031, 2333, 1806

Auto

16.1 22%

Teleop

28.3 38%

Endgame

30.0 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9428, 2410, 4766

/ 100 compat

Projected

218.6 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 9428, 2410, 4766

Auto

29.9 14%

Teleop

123.2 57%

Endgame

64.9 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.02 · Blue 2.31

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score80.9pts

Blue projected score218.6pts

Red win probability15%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -137.7
Score range: 46–254
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 235 vs event baseline 192.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

289.2Season APEX329.1

16.1Auto29.9

28.3Teleop123.2

30Endgame64.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	33
teleop	46	55
endgame	31	48
foul	0	0
total	99	136

Result

Final score

99 – 136

Prediction correct · off by 50.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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