Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

222.28 – 104.83

81%19%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

236 – 53

Prediction correct · off by 32.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 433.6 ±11.7

4213MetalCow Robotics

Season APEX 98.6Event APEX 51.15Rank 20Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2333Sapulpa Robotics Team

Season APEX 143Event APEX 44.65Rank 32Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2040DERT - Dunlap Eagles Robotics Team

Season APEX 192Event APEX 126.48Rank 8Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 261.6 ±15

9570Valiant

Season APEX 92.2Event APEX 53.49Rank 12Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

8770FireBolts

Season APEX 64.3Event APEX 25.23Rank 35Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 89

11171Hi Gear

Season APEX 105.1Event APEX 26.11Rank 17Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 92

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4213, 2333, 2040

/ 100 compat

Projected

222.3 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 4213, 2333, 2040

Auto

18.6 8%

Teleop

132.9 60%

Endgame

69.2 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9570, 8770, 11171

/ 100 compat

Projected

104.8 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 9570, 8770, 11171

Auto

16.6 16%

Teleop

62.3 59%

Endgame

26.9 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.36 · Blue 1.08

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score222.3pts

Blue projected score104.8pts

Red win probability81%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 117.5
Score range: 69–258
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 289 vs event baseline 202.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

433.6Season APEX261.6

18.6Auto16.6

132.9Teleop62.3

69.2Endgame26.9

57Consistency13

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	20
teleop	137	14
endgame	62	19
foul	0	0
total	236	53

Result

Final score

236 – 53

Prediction correct · off by 32.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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