Qualification · Qualification 19

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

153.79 – 112.26

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

89 – 129

Prediction missed · off by 40.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 198.5 ±16

2001HERMES

Provisional

Season APEX 63.9Event APEX 50.51Rank 39Record 3-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

1982Cougar Robotics

Season APEX 57.1Event APEX 41.39Rank 38Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1764Liberty Robotics

Season APEX 77.5Event APEX 61.89Rank 22Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 247.3 ±13.9

1802Team Stealth

Season APEX 112.6Event APEX 58.91Rank 14Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8770FireBolts

Season APEX 64.3Event APEX 47.23Rank 35Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 89

1208Metool Brigade

Season APEX 70.4Event APEX 6.12Rank 26Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2001, 1982, 1764

/ 100 compat

Projected

153.8 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 2001, 1982, 1764

Auto

33.4 22%

Teleop

83.4 54%

Endgame

36.8 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1802, 8770, 1208

/ 100 compat

Projected

112.3 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 1802, 8770, 1208

Auto

38.1 34%

Teleop

32.3 29%

Endgame

40.8 37%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.85 · Blue 1.38

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score153.8pts

Blue projected score112.3pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 41.5
Score range: 76–190
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 218 vs event baseline 197.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

198.5Season APEX247.3

33.4Auto38.1

83.4Teleop32.3

36.8Endgame40.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	35
teleop	38	70
endgame	32	24
foul	0	0
total	89	129

Result

Final score

89 – 129

Prediction missed · off by 40.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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