Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

300.3 – 134.62

89%11%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

309 – 218

Prediction correct · off by 46 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 479.5 ±13.5

2040DERT - Dunlap Eagles Robotics Team

Season APEX 192Event APEX 110.97Rank 8Record 7-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5809The Jesubots 5809

Season APEX 221.6Event APEX 111.62Rank 13Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8112Cyclotrons

Season APEX 65.9Event APEX 77.71Rank 16Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 92

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 300 ±16.5

1730Team Driven

Season APEX 119.4Event APEX 39.19Rank 6Record 8-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4213MetalCow Robotics

Season APEX 98.6Event APEX 37.48Rank 20Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2560RoboDog

Provisional

Season APEX 82Event APEX 57.95Rank 41Record 2-9-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2040, 5809, 8112

/ 100 compat

Projected

300.3 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 2040, 5809, 8112

Auto

62.3 21%

Teleop

149.8 51%

Endgame

80.0 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1730, 4213, 2560

/ 100 compat

Projected

134.6 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 1730, 4213, 2560

Auto

24.8 20%

Teleop

70.0 57%

Endgame

27.0 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.52 · Blue 0.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score300.3pts

Blue projected score134.6pts

Red win probability89%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 69%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 165.7
Score range: 100–335
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 527 vs event baseline 193.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

479.5Season APEX300

62.3Auto24.8

149.8Teleop70

80Endgame27

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	52	42
teleop	184	121
endgame	73	55
foul	0	0
total	309	218

Result

Final score

309 – 218

Prediction correct · off by 46 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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